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CEREN D\u0130LEK\u00c7\u0130 K\u00d6SEO\u011eLU<\/strong><\/p>\n Deutsche Bank Ortado\u011fu ve Do\u011fu Avrupa Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Christian Wietoska, BloombergHT’den Ceren Dilek\u00e7i K\u00f6seo\u011flu’nun sorular\u0131n\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n Ge\u00e7tigimiz hafta T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 ile ilgili notunda carry trade i\u015flemlerinin geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydeden Deutsche Bank, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 itibariyle T\u00fcrk liras\u0131yla ilgili pozitif bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma ge\u00e7misti. Raporu haz\u0131rlayan ekipte yer alan Wietoska, TL’ye ili\u015fkin 12 ayl\u0131k beklentilerinin \u00e7ok daha yap\u0131c\u0131 bir durumda oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n Para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fundaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ve se\u00e7imlerden beri al\u0131nan mali \u00f6nlemlerin TL’yi destekledi\u011fini kaydeden Wietoska, “Ekonomide yeniden dengelenmeyle birlikte piyasaya nakit giri\u015flerinin h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrk tahvil piyasas\u0131na uzun s\u00fcredir bu kadar y\u00fcksek giri\u015f ya\u015fanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Sermaye taraf\u0131ndaki giri\u015flerin istikrar kazanmas\u0131 daha iyi bir s\u00fcreci beraberinde getirebilir” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n “2024 sonu kur hedefimiz 36”<\/b><\/p>\n Kurda nominal bazda y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesini beklediklerini kaydeden Wietoska, s\u00f6zlerini \u015f\u00f6yle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc:<\/p>\n “Kurun \u00f6zellikle se\u00e7imlere do\u011fru reel bazda \u00e7ok iyi performans g\u00f6sterece\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. 2024 sonu itibariyle Dolar\/TL kuru hedefimiz 36. Nominal anlamda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok kademeli olaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz.”<\/p>\n Uzun vadeli tahvillerde rallinin son d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken Wietoska, 2024 y\u0131l sonunda 10 y\u0131l vadeli tahvillerde y\u00fczde 25 getiri beklediklerini belirtti.<\/p>\n “Erken faiz indirimi portf\u00f6y ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve TL \u00fczerinde bask\u0131ya neden olur”<\/b><\/p>\n TCMB’den bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131da 250 baz puan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklediklerini kaydeden Wietoska, baz senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131nda da 250 baz puan daha faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Wietoska’ya g\u00f6re, faizlerin y\u00fczde 42,5 seviyesinde kalma riski var. Bu nedenle TCMB’nin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc verece\u011fi mesajlar \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/p>\n Kurumun tepe faiz beklentisi y\u00fczde 42,5-45. May\u0131s’ta enflasyonun y\u00fczde 70 ile tepe yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ard\u0131ndan yaz\u0131n sert bir \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gelmesini beklediklerini kaydeden Wietoska, faiz indirimi beklentilerine ili\u015fkin \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n “Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f TCMB’ye 2024’te faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in alan verecek. TCMB’nin 4.\u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131 itibariyle faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son d\u00f6nemde FED ile AMB’den faiz indirimi beklentileri \u00f6ne cekildi. Bunun T\u00fcrkiye’de de olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.TCMB, yaz sonras\u0131 faiz indirimine ba\u015flayabilir. Faiz indirimi \u00e7ok erken ba\u015flarsa portf\u00f6y ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve TL \u00fczerinde bask\u0131ya neden olabilir. E\u011fer enflasyon y\u00fczde 50’ye gerilerse TCMB, faiz indiriminin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmaya baslayabilir.Temel senaryomuz, faiz indirimlerinin 2024’\u00fcn son \u00e7eyre\u011fi itibariyle ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ama yaz sonunda faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flanmas\u0131 ihtimalini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmiyoruz.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Deutsche Bank Ortado\u011fu ve Do\u011fu Avrupa Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Wietoska, TCMB’nin seneye 4.\u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131 itibariyle faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini belirtti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":54674,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[833,221,126,3620,108],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54673"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54673"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54673\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54675,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54673\/revisions\/54675"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}