\u0130srail\u2019le HAMAS aras\u0131nda insanl\u0131k su\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u015fleme yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 amans\u0131zca devam ederken, tam anlam\u0131yla k\u0131yma makinas\u0131na d\u00f6nen Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 da unutmayal\u0131m.\u00a0 Hisse senetleri ba\u015fta riskli varl\u0131klar hala parlak bir gelece\u011fi fiyatl\u0131yor, ama d\u00fcnya ekonomisi durma noktas\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

2022 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrleri \u00e7oklu kriz (poly-crisis, perma-crisis) \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na girip girmedi\u011fimizi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu tez Lawrence Summers\u2019\u0131n literat\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fcze kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201csecular stagnation\u201d (uzun soluklu durgunluk) tezinin\u00a0 yerini almaya aday. Art\u0131k global ekonomide denge noktas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen faizin s\u0131f\u0131r veya eksi oldu\u011fu, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kronik \u00a0tasarruf fazlas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na girdi\u011fimiz hipotezi \u00e7\u00f6pe at\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya \u00e7oklu kriz \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na girdi<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00c7oklu kriz d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda, enflasyon ve nominal faizler 21ci Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ilk yirmi y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek seviyede seyredecek. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fecek. Gelir adaletsizli\u011fi artacak.\u00a0 Riskli varl\u0131klardan getiri elde etmek olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

Bu tezin do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde, Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek-Gaye Erkan-Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz triosu ne kadar \u00e7aba g\u00f6sterirse g\u00f6stersin, ekonomimizin \u00a0uzun y\u0131llar toparlanamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 akl\u0131m\u0131zda tutal\u0131m.<\/p>\n

30 y\u0131ll\u0131k bar\u0131\u015f ve refah d\u00f6nemi sona eriyor<\/b><\/p>\n

Niye bu noktaya geldik ve elimizde bu tezi destekleyecek doneler var m\u0131?<\/p>\n

Euro-Phoenix Mali Danm\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k \u015firketi kurucu sahibi \u00a0ve eski D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 y\u00f6neticilerinden Les Nemethy 1990-2020 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnyay\u0131 \u015fekillendiren trendleri \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetliyor:<\/p>\n

\n
• So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n 1990\u2019da sona ermesi t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya bir bar\u0131\u015f temett\u00fcs\u00fc sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/li>\n
• K\u00fcresel ekonomiye ucuz (\u00e7o\u011funlukla \u00c7inli, ama \u00e7ok say\u0131da da kalifiye SSCB vatanda\u015f\u0131) i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn kat\u0131lmas\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcreselle\u015fme, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tuttu. T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6receli olarak d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00fcst ve orta gelir s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n refah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, i\u00e7 talepte patlama yoluyla d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine de gaz verdi.<\/li>\n
• H\u0131zlanan uluslararas\u0131 ticaret t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin g\u00f6receli rekabet avantaj\u0131ndan yararlanmas\u0131 ve ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine olanak sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/li>\n
• 21ci Y\u00fczy\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bor\u00e7 seviyelerinden ba\u015flayarak kald\u0131ra\u00e7 art\u0131rma da GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine katk\u0131da bulundu. 1990-2008 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda bu kald\u0131ra\u00e7 \u00e7o\u011funlukla Avrupa ve ABD\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

  Bizi 2008 B\u00fcy\u00fck Finansal Krizden \u00c7in kurtard\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n

  \n
  • 2008 mali krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u00c7in ekonomisi nispeten kald\u0131ra\u00e7s\u0131z tek b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiydi. Belki de d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in bir \u015fans, \u00c7inliler 2008\u2019de bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131, bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarlarda emtia, makine ve l\u00fcks mal ithalat\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin motoru oldu.<\/li>\n
  • Nominal ve reel faizler 1980\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndan 2020\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131na kadar istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece balon gibi \u015fi\u015fen bor\u00e7lara ra\u011fmen bor\u00e7 servisi maliyetleri az-\u00e7ok yatay kald\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Art\u0131k ters r\u00fczgarlarla \u00e7alkanan okyanustay\u0131z<\/p>\n

    D\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131n hangi tarihte ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya hangi olaylar\u0131n trendi k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek g\u00fc\u00e7. Ama, Trump\u2019\u0131n Ticaret Sava\u015flar\u0131 takribi bir tarih olarak i\u015faretlenebilir. Art\u0131k poli-krizi tetikleyen ters r\u00fczgarlar hakim global ekonomik iklimde. Yine Nemetny\u2019den yararlanarak s\u0131ralayal\u0131m bu ters r\u00fczgarlar\u0131:<\/p>\n

    \n
    • K\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 kontrolden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p 250 trilyon dolara yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu yek\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u00e7inde kamu borcunun pay\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde art\u0131yor.<\/li>\n
    • \u00c7ok az say\u0131da devlet borcun ana paras\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6der. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, kemer s\u0131kma ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131 sand\u0131kta pop\u00fcler de\u011fil. Bunun yerine enflasyonu \u015fi\u015firerek borcun REEL de\u011ferini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek tercih edilen strateji. Enflasyonun sistemimize bu kadar yerle\u015fmesinin nedeni k\u0131smen budur.<\/li>\n
    • Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde bor\u00e7 servisi di\u011fer b\u00fct\u00e7e kalemlerini daralt\u0131rken, \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclkede faiz gideri art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcp kamu borcu\/GSYH birikimini h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye de bu \u00fclkelerden biri.<\/li>\n
    • Bile\u015fik faiz \u00fcstel bir e\u011fridir; e\u011frinin daha dik k\u0131sm\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/li>\n
    • \u00c7in, gayrimenkul ve altyap\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 in\u015fa edilmi\u015f, d\u00fcnyadaki en fazla g\u00fcce sahip \u00fclkelerden biri haline geldi. \u00c7in ekonomisinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on y\u0131lda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00e7ok daha zay\u0131f bir motoru olmas\u0131 muhtemel. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nde gelen \u00c7in uzmanlar\u0131ndan biri olan Michael Pettis \u00c7in\u2019in altyap\u0131 ve ihracatla b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinin geri d\u00f6n\u00fclmez \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok g\u00fczel anlat\u0131yor. Pettis\u2019e g\u00f6re, \u00c7in\u2019in varolan ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen fiziksel \u00fcretim kapasitesi t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n sanayi mallar\u0131 talebini kar\u015f\u0131layacak boyuta geni\u015fledi. \u0130yi ama, kendi mal\u0131n\u0131 satamayan bir \u00fclkenin vatanda\u015flar\u0131 hangi gelirle sat\u0131n alacak \u00c7in mallar\u0131n\u0131?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve demografi \u201cg\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen\u201d tehditler<\/b><\/p>\n

      \n
      • Artan say\u0131da kas\u0131rga, kurakl\u0131k, orman yang\u0131n\u0131 vb. nedeniyle iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi h\u0131zlan\u0131yor. Bir\u00e7ok risk t\u00fcr\u00fc sigortalanamaz hale geliyor. \u0130klim kaynakl\u0131 do\u011fal afetlerin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik maliyeti var. Fakir ve orta gelirli \u00fclkelerin bu maliyeti \u00f6deyecek g\u00fcc\u00fc yok, yani her ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bir\u00e7ok insan yoksullu\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor.<\/li>\n
      • H\u00fck\u00fcmetler, yoksullukla m\u00fccadele ve ye\u015fil ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015fi finanse etmek i\u00e7in bor\u00e7 toplamak zorunda kal\u0131yor.<\/li>\n
      • Jeo-politik boyutta, tek kutuplu d\u00fcnya ve Pax Americana yerini \u00e7ok kutuplu d\u00fcnyaya b\u0131rakarak siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu sadece k\u00fcresel ticaret ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor. \u015eu anda iki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma (Ukrayna, Gazze), birka\u00e7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve ufukta en az bir ba\u015fka potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, yani Tayvan var. Sava\u015f yoksullu\u011fa, m\u00fclteci dalgalar\u0131na, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa, pop\u00fclizme, askeri harcamalar\u0131n artmas\u0131na vb. katk\u0131da bulunuyor. D\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun giderek artan bir k\u0131sm\u0131 sava\u015f b\u00f6lgelerinde ya\u015f\u0131yor.<\/li>\n
      • Global demografik trendler bozuldu. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu yerinde, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m d\u00fc\u015ferken, her \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ony\u0131llarda giderek daha fazla emekliye destek olmak zorunda kalacak.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        \u00c7are yok mu poli-krize?<\/b><\/p>\n

        Sokaktaki kad\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131 \u00e7ekilmez hale gelirken, se\u00e7men \u201cmavi hap\u201d, yani basit ve h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler istiyor. Sonu\u00e7ta pop\u00fclizm yay\u0131l\u0131yor. Toplumlar\u0131n kutupla\u015fmas\u0131na, diyalo\u011fun azalmas\u0131na, kararlar\u0131n ideolojik \u00e7izgilerde al\u0131nmas\u0131na ve optimal olmayan ekonomik y\u00f6netime yol a\u00e7mas\u0131na katk\u0131da bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

        En k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc ise bu ters r\u00fczgarlar s\u0131kl\u0131kla birbirini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirici nitlei\u011fe sahip. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u00e7ok kutuplu d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni ve b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabeti y\u00fcz\u00fcnden \u00c7inliler art\u0131k tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131 ABD Hazine tahvillerine park etmiyor. ABD tahvillerine talebin azalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in bilan\u00e7o daraltmas\u0131yla e\u015fanl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fince, \u00a0b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in \u00a0Hazine\u2019nin daha y\u00fcksek faizler sunmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n

        Y\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir i\u015ftahla kendi kuyru\u011funu kemiriyor.<\/p>\n

        Pek, bu teze kan\u0131t var m\u0131?\u00a0 Evet, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ayl\u0131k seyrini S&P Global ve JP Morgan taraf\u0131ndan derlenen bile\u015fik PMI aktivite endeksiyle \u00f6l\u00e7eriz. Ekim sonunda bu endeks 10 ayl\u0131k dip yapt\u0131.\u00a0 D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 21ci Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ilk 10 y\u0131l\u0131nda %5.4 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Art\u0131k IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fta global \u00f6l\u00e7ekte makro-ekonomik ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar yapan kurulu\u015flar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131lda %3 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

        Bu a\u00e7mazdan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yok mu?\u00a0 Var, ama b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u201cbir \u015feyler k\u0131r\u0131lmadan\u201d rakipler \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in \u00f6n \u015fart olan bar\u0131\u015f ve global siyasi d\u00fczenin yeniden tesisi hususunda anla\u015famayacak. Yapay Zeka ile v\u00fccut bulan, ama asl\u0131nda \u00fcstel \u015fekilde \u00fcretim katma de\u011feri \u00a0ve ya\u015fam kalitesini y\u00fckselten ke\u015fifler dizisi de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ba\u015f\u0131 verimlili\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olabilir.<\/p>\n

        Bir \u00e7are daha var. E\u011fer ABD, Rusya ve \u00c7in anla\u015f\u0131rsa, uzayl\u0131lar\u0131n ony\u0131llard\u0131r\u00a0 d\u00fcnyam\u0131z\u0131 ziyaret etti\u011fi resmen a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131r. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnya \u201cortak d\u00fc\u015fmana\u201d kar\u015f\u0131 birlikte hareket etmeye \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n

        F\u00d6\u015e<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        \u0130srail\u2019le HAMAS aras\u0131nda insanl\u0131k su\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u015fleme yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 amans\u0131zca devam ederken, tam anlam\u0131yla k\u0131yma makinas\u0131na d\u00f6nen Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 da unutmayal\u0131m.\u00a0 Hisse\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[95,263,121,739,3168],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22720"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22720"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22720\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22722,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22720\/revisions\/22722"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22721"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nonamefx.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}